2016 Election Day Hopes and Predictions

Hopes and Predictions for the 2016 Statewide Election in Oklahoma

By Craig Dawkins – Sunday – November 6, 2016

The State Questions…  (If you don’t know what they are, view your ballot here à https://services.okelections.us/voterSearch.aspx ) Also see (https://ballotpedia.org/Oklahoma_2016_ballot_measures),    (https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1788916534713066&id=1649168038687917)

SQ 776 – A NO vote has been advocated. This initiative will have no bearing on capital punishment in Oklahoma. Pass or fail, executions will continue. This sets a condition where the federal government may be forced to impose on the methods chosen by the state that violate the US Constitution. This will tie the hands of state judges to some degree because the people will have approved whatever method of execution chosen by the state. But because many or maybe most Oklahomans who vote on this will believe capital punishment hangs in the balance. It will pass.

SQ 777 – I have advocated a NO vote on this issue. This is a solution in search of a problem. Advocates of SQ 777 want to be afforded reaffirmed and special rights to do that which they already can do. There is concern that big corporate farms will damage the property of their neighbors and will have the ability to win civil cases using the power of their industry against a plaintiff. This bill also forces the state legislature to go to the courts in order to write legislation that applies to the agriculture and livestock industry. This issue has been raised because of a fear of "radical environmentalists" coming into the state and harming their industry. There is no chance of this happening in Oklahoma. Arguably this is a close call however, given the unintended consequences of the outcome, and the fact that there isn’t a compelling reason for this constitutional amendment, it needs to fail. I believe this amendment will fail.

SQ 779 – A NO vote is important here. Raising sales tax a penny is a 22% increase in the state sales tax. It will imperil local initiatives that are needed. A blank check given to the education system without a single reform is a mistake. And it is important we get education right as it is an economic driver that needs more than just money to make it work well. While state polls in August showed 60+% supported this sales tax increase, I believe this will be close. Recent criminal charges brought against State Superintendent of Schools Joy Hofmeister for alleged campaign violations and conspiracy may dampen enthusiasm. Still, it will likely pass in a squeaker with rural Oklahoma voting overwhelmingly in favor of the increase. 

SQ 780 and SQ 781 – A YES vote on both of these questions would help relieve the pressure on Oklahoma’s criminal justice system. Oklahoma ranks number one in the USA in the incarceration of women per capita. Oklahoma ranks second in the incarceration of men and second overall. The state of Texas has made great gains in reclassifying crimes, reducing incarceration rates, while at the same time keeping crime rates low. While opponents have used California as an example of how it goes wrong, a recent study by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice has debunked those claims. Sadly, Oklahomans have not sufficiently embraced smart on crime initiatives and have voted in support of “tough (stupid) on crime” policies in the past. While there have been four bills signed into law this year, state questions 780 and 781 will strengthen and assist more rapid reductions in needless and unproductive incarceration. These initiatives will likely fail.

SQ 790 – A NO vote is important. While the origins of the law that brought about this State Question are a shameful reference to the “Blaine Amendment,” an anti-Catholic initiative imposed at statehood, this has resulted in a separation of church and state to some degree. What prompted this State Question was an order by the Oklahoma Supreme Court to remove the Ten Commandments monument from the capitol grounds because it violated this provision of Oklahoma’s Constitution. And it should be noted that certainly six and probably seven of the Ten Commandments are overtly unconstitutional if they were imposed as law by aspiring theocrats. However, given the demographic profile of the state, this will likely pass. Unfortunately, Pandora’s box will be opened and left for future generations to close.

SQ 792 – A YES vote is vital. Other states have more freedom for adults who wish to purchase beer and strong wine in grocery stores. Also, liquor stores have been prohibited from selling refrigerated beverages. This much needed modernization of Oklahoma's liquor laws is past due. Oklahoma needs to shed the failed legacy of Prohibition era liquor laws. This will likely pass with rural counties providing the most opposition.

Presidential Election – Trump will win Oklahoma with ease, unfortunately. Hillary Clinton may receive a higher percentage of the vote in Oklahoma County than Democrats have in the past but will likely lose every county in Oklahoma. Nationally, Hillary Clinton will win in a landslide, which is also unfortunate for the country.  Hopefully, Libertarian nominee, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson will gain in the realm of 5% of the vote but will likely come in around 3% in Oklahoma, which will be enough to keep the Oklahoma Libertarian Party on the ballot as a recognized political party. 

US Senate Election – Republican James Lankford will win reelection in a landslide. There have been no candidates who have distinguished themselves as serious opponents and the voters have not been afforded a debate to hear the candidates who are challenging Lankford. This is unfortunate and is something future elections will likely repeat until well-funded opposition emerges against incumbents. 

Supreme Court Judge Retention – All will be retained. Anyone who doesn’t want them retained would leave current Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin to appoint new justices. That seems a daunting prospect for those wanting to improve liberty in Oklahoma.

Oklahoma County offices – Vote Chris Powell for County Clerk. Republican David B. Hooten and Libertarian Chris Powell are the only candidates in the race. While the Republican in this race defeated long term incumbent Carolyn Caudill in the Republican primary, both Caudill and Hooten have had brushes with the law with questionable judgement regarding driving while intoxicated and leaving the scene of an accident. (See charges at this link - http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/GetCaseInformation.asp?submitted=true&viewtype=caseGeneral&casemasterID=1341158&db=Oklahoma )
Powell has a campaign video. (See link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHpH8pzp5-k ) It will be a tough race given the number of straight party Republican voters but give him a look.

Vote Anastasia Pittman for Court Clerk. If you drive the Interstate highways in Oklahoma County, you'll see a plethora of illegally placed signs by Republican Rick Warren, the incumbent running for re-election. If the incumbent court clerk can't get his own campaign to follow the law regarding political signs, he should not be reelected. ODOT spends $4 million per year removing trash from highways and it seems abusive for a politician to contribute to that cost and task. Also, political signs create a hazard according to ODOT. (See link - http://www.tulsaworld.com/odot-guidelines-for-campaign-signs/article_03f76892-472d-53c6-8bdc-a0339c6f1e51.html) Again, it’ll be a tough go for any Democrat in a presidential year, but Oklahoma County is turning purple.  Pittman has a checkered record on LGBT rights however, as Court Clerk will not be denying rights affirmed by the US Supreme Court.

Vote “None of the Above” for County Sheriff. Two really awful candidates for county sheriff in 2016. Incumbent Democrat John Whetsel will likely find himself charged with crimes after Election Day. (See link - http://newsok.com/article/5525281?slideout=1 ) His opponent is term limited House Representative Republican Mike Christian, and he has a plethora of ethical issues dating back to his days at the Oklahoma Highway Patrol, (See link - http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/elections/oklahoma-county-sheriff-candidate-was-disciplined-for-immoral-conduct-with/article_95cea466-897c-5fbf-8070-c284400305d8.html) his office as state representative, (See link -  http://www.thelostogle.com/2010/06/23/re-meet-randy-terrills-accuser/ ) and in his campaign for sheriff. (See link - http://www.thelostogle.com/2016/10/28/mike-christian-is-a-liar/ ) If Whetsel squeaks through reelection, it’s possible that Oklahoma County voters will get another chance to elect a sheriff. If Christian wins, it’s likely another four years.